Les élections

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WP99: Vote buying and violence in Nigerian election campaigns

Vote buying and political intimidation are important, if epiphenomenal, dimensions of Nigerian election campaigns. According to survey-based estimates, fewer than one out of five Nigerians is personally exposed to vote buying and fewer than one in ten experiences threats of electoral violence. But when, as commonly happens, campaign irregularities are targeted at the rural poor, effects are concentrated. These effects are as follows: violence reduces turnout; and vote buying enhances partisan loyalty.


WP103: Tribalism as a minimax-regret strategy: Evidence from voting in the 2007 Kenyan elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, few studies have sought to explain such voting behavior using a rational choice framework. In this note, we use data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the 2007 Kenyan presidential elections to evaluate the primary motivation for voting. We analyze voter responses on a number of issues and show that there are major differences in expected benefits across ethnic groups depending on the winning presidential candidate.


WP104: Do free elections foster capable governments? The democracy-governance connection in Africa

Does democratization lead to improved governance? This exploratory paper addresses this question with reference to a cross-section of sub-Saharan African countries using macro, micro and trend data. The results show an elective affinity between free elections and improved governance. But any democracy advantage is more apparent in relation to some dimensions governance than others. For example, while elections apparently boost the rule of law and control of corruption, they also seem to undercut the transparency of government procedures and the responsiveness of elected officials.


WP106: Is clientelism at work in African elections? A study of voting behavior in Kenya and Zambia

In this study I challenge the notion that personalism and clientelism structure voting behavior in Africa. Using a unique combination of data sources - survey responses from the Afrobarometer project merged with constituency-level election returns - I test the relative power of two interpersonal, clientelistic interactions between voters and members of parliament (MPs), vs. how often MPs visit their constituency, in predicting election outcomes.


WP107: Cross-cutting cleavages and ethnic voting: An experimental study of cousinage in Mali

Social scientists often attribute moderation of the political salience of ethnicity, in ethnically diverse societies, to the presence of cross-cutting cleavages-that is, to dimensions of identity or interest along which members of the same ethnic group may have diverse allegiances. Yet estimating the causal effects of cross-cutting cleavages is difficult.


WP114: Vote-buying and political behavior: Estimating and explaining vote-buying's effect on turnout in Kenya

Vote-buying has and continues to be pervasive in many electoral regimes. Yet the relationship between vote-buying and citizen behavior, particularly in the context of the secret ballot, remains largely unknown. In this paper I study vote-buying’s effect on voter turnout in Kenya, using a nationally representative survey that includes questions about the country's 2002 presidential and parliamentary elections.


WP115: Support you can count on? Ethnicity, partisanship, and retrospective voting in Africa

In this paper we investigate voting behavior in Africa to ask what base of support presidents can count on. The most prevalent notion about electoral politics in Africa is that voters simply vote for co-ethnics. We find that assumption to be faulty. While voters tend to support a co-ethnic president, their support is not inevitable, and non co-ethnics can be swayed in a president’s favor in essentially the same fashion as co-ethnics. We show that, despite political parties lack of differentiable policy programs, party identification is what gives presidents their strongest support base.


WP121: Political participation in Africa: Participatory inequalities and the role of resources

The aim of this paper is to examine the role of individual resource endowments for explaining individual and group variation in African political participation. Drawing on new data for more than 27 000 respondents in 20 emerging African democracies, the empirical findings suggest surprisingly weak explanatory power of the resource perspective, both for explaining individual variation and observed group inequalities in participation. In several cases, the relatively resource poor groups participate to a greater extent than the relatively resource rich.


WP127: Voting intentions in Africa: Ethnic, economic or partisan?

This paper offers a first comprehensive account of popular voting intentions in Africa’s new electoral democracies. With reference to comparative aggregate and survey data from 16 countries, we show that competitive elections in Africa are more than mere ethnic censuses or simple economic referenda. Instead, Africans engage in both ethnic and economic voting. Not surprisingly, people who belong to the ethnic group in power intend to support the ruling party, in contrast to those who feel a sense of discrimination against their cultural group.


WP137: Perceptions versus reality: Assessing popular evaluations of election quality in Africa

In this paper, I assess the determinants and validity of citizens’ perceptions of election quality. First, I suggest that citizens’ evaluation of the performance of election-related institutions is the most crucial determinant of their election quality perceptions; however, citizens’ personal experience with electoral irregularities, and affiliation with electoral winners also matter. Second, I argue that citizens’ election quality perceptions are generally indicative of prevailing trends within different stages of the election process.


Les Togolais sont favorables à la limitation des mandats présidentiels

Plus de quatre Togolais sur cinq sont favorables au principe de la limitation du nombre de mandats présidentiels, selon une nouvelle enquête d’Afrobarométre.

Dans l'enquête national représentative menée en Octobre 2014, 85% des répondants se prononcent d’accord – y compris 60% qui sont « tout à fait d’accord » -- avec l’affirmation que « La Constitution devrait limiter l’exercice de la fonction du président de la République à
un maximum de deux mandats ». Seulement 13% s’opposent à une telle limite.


Une majorité de Burundais soutiennent la limitation des mandats présidentiels à deux

Selon une nouvelle enquête d’Afrobaromètre, six Burundais sur 10 (62%) soutiennent la limitation des mandats présidentiels à deux – une évolution remarquable dans l’opinion publique entre 2012 et 2014.

En 2012, seuls 51% de citoyens burundais étaient favorables à la limitation des mandats. La nouvelle majorité pourrait signifier qu’au fur et à mesure qu’on s’approche des élections, et surtout au fil des débats sur la question, le nombre de personnes opposé au troisième mandat présidentiel augmente.